Nobody predicted the Arab Spring or that it would start in Tunisia – including Arab and Middle East experts. There was an awareness it could happen but no more. The world’s media barely noticed Bouazizi’s dramatic act at first and have been playing catch up with its repercussions ever since.
Given the lamentable state of Arab governance – the corruption, the lack of respect for human rights – the shock should really have been that such regimes lasted so long.
Forests of newsprint covered the revolutions. But precious few column inches diagnosed the vicious counter-revolution. Such regimes do not go meekly into the night. The Egyptian military returned itself to power by 2013. Bashar Al Assad refused to step aside as world leaders demanded in Syria. Saudi Arabia led those states determined to end this “dangerous” fantasy of democracy and citizenship, burying it in the rubble of the Syrian civil war.
Revolutionary fervour has not dissipated. Frustration, anger and despair still stalk the slums of the regional metropolises. There are many more Bouazizis out there. Where once their feelings could be vented in mass peaceful protests, their aspirations thwarted, some turn towards the ranks of Islamists, even the extremist Salafi-Jihadists of Isil. The desire for change is stronger than ever.
“Some argue dictators are the answer. But the old ones merely stored up tension until an explosion became inevitable”
Many claim the Arab uprisings failed. Whilse in the Internet and social media standards five years is an eternity, for a regional revolution, it is a blink of the eye. The Middle East is facing profound and traumatic change, perhaps no less dramatic than what Europe faced a century ago. Future generations may pass judgment on this but not ours. Only fools dare to predict history.
Despite the reputation-smashing nature of events, even non-Middle East experts still discuss the region in absolutes and certainties. This was even a feature of the Parliamentary debate on whether to bomb Syria. Treat with suspicion anyone who claims they know precisely what should be done and what will definitely happen.
Some argue dictators are the answer and we should turn back the clock. But the hour hand will come round again. Dictatorships were not the answer in 2010 and they are unlikely to be so now. They acted like pressure cookers, storing up tensions and anger until an explosion becomes inevitable.
After all the bloodshed and destruction in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, the most shameful betrayal would be to gloss this over and accept a return to the status quo ante. Hundreds of thousands risked their lives for a better future. Whilst these wars must be ended, political, economic and even social transformation must follow.
Buried in the origins of all the Arab uprisings are deep-rooted imbalances in the region and society. Youth unemployment remains, exacerbated by rising population and resource shortages. This can only be resolved with a systematic overhaul of the system of governance. Corruption is endemic and rule of law derisory. If the outside world truly wants to make a difference, it must push to address this.
The key lesson of 17 December 2010 is to highlight how little we do know of this region and its dynamics. So let us remember Muhammad Bouazizi with some humility, and recognise that even in the 21st century, a single act, by one man, can change history.
A timeline of Mohammed Morsi’s downfall and the aftermath
It has been nearly two years since Mohammed Morsi was removed from power and the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood
July 3, 2013
Mohammed Morsi is removed from power
Morsi is deposed and detained by the military. Supporters of the ousted president begin mass sit-ins demanding that he is reinstated. Brotherhood figures are arrested by the military.
July 27
Pro-Morsi sit-ins continue
Pro-Morsi sit-ins and daily demonstrations continue. Security forces clash with protesters leaving 80 dead at the two major camps.
August 11
Egyptian government cracks down on sit-ins
The Egyptian government declares it will remove the sit-ins within 24 hours.
August 14
Protesters removed by force
Security forces take action against the protesters, using armoured vehicles and bulldozers, in the deadliest massacre of Egypt’s modern history. An estimated 1,000 people are killed across the two major camps.
October 6
Further demonstrations leave 51 dead
Police mount deadly attack on pro-Morsi protest in Cairo, killing 51 demonstrators.
November 4, 2013
Morsi in first court appearance
Morsi appears in court for the first time, charged in connection to deadly violence outside his Cairo palace in December 2012.
November 4
Morsi in first court appearance
Morsi appears in court for the first time, charged in connection to deadly violence outside his Cairo palace in December 2012.
November 24
‘Unofficial’ protests criminalised
In an example of the government’s increased crackdown, ‘unofficial’ protests criminalised
December 24
Jihadist group kills security personnel
At least 12 security personnel killed as deadly blasts rock a Nile Delta security directorate. The attack is later claimed by Ansar Bayt el Maqdis, a jihadist group.
December 25
Muslim Brother blacklisted
The Muslim Brotherhood are blacklisted as a terrorist organisation.
January 24, 2014
Cairo hit by quadruple bombing, later claimed by new militant group Ajnad Misr.
January 25
Third anniversary of the revolution ends with protesters killed
At least 49 people killed as police crush protests with deadly force on the third anniversary of Egypt’s revolution.
January 24, 2015
Leftist poet killed by police
Police shoot dead leftist poet in central Cairo on the eve of the revolution’s fourth anniversary. Her death prompts rare criticism in the state media.
March 5, 2015
Mohamed Ibrahim, the interior minister, is sacked. He had overseen the bloodiest and most repressive eras in Egypt’s modern history.
April 21, 2015
Morsi is sentenced to 20 years in prison.